Figure
— *Probability distributions ***.
(A) Probability distributions for each climate sensitivity distribution for
the climate sensitivity – only Monte Carlo analyses with zero damages
and 0% PRTP (a 1% discount rate). (B) Probability distributions for the joint
(climate sensitivity and climate damage) MC analyses. All distributions display
a 3-bin running mean and the percentage of outcomes above our median threshold
of 2.85°C for dangerous climate change, P{DAI[50‰]}. The joint distributions
display carbon taxes calculated in 2050 (T2050) by the DICE model, using the
median climate sensitivity from each climate sensitivity distribution and
the median climate damage function for the joint Monte Carlo cases (19). When
we compare the joint cases with climate policy controls (B) to the climate
sensitivity – only cases without climate policy controls (A), sufficient
carbon taxes reduce the potential (significantly in two out of three cases)
for DAI[50‰]. (Source: ****Mastrandrea
and Schneider, 2004**.)