Figure — Schematic depiction of the relationship between “well-calibrated” scenarios, the wider range of “judged” uncertainty that might be elicited through decision analytic techniques, and the “full” range of uncertainty, which is wider to represent overconfidence in human judgments. M1 to M4 represent scenarios produced by four models (e.g., globally averaged temperature increases from an equilibrium response to doubled CO2 concentrations). This lies within a “full” range of uncertainty that is not fully identified, much less directly quantified by existing theoretical or empirical evidence (modified from Jones, 2000, Figure 2.2 in Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002)