Projected Effect | Probability estimate | Examples of Projected Impacts with high confidence of occurrence (67 95% probability) in at least some areas |
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas | Very likely (90-99%) | Increased deaths and serious illness in older
age groups and urban poor Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife Shift in tourist destinations Increased risk of damage to a number of crops Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability |
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold waves over nearly all land areas | Very likely (90-99%) | Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality Decreased risk of damage to a number of crops, and increased risk to others Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors Reduced heating energy demand |
More intense precipitation events | Very likely (90-99%) over many areas | Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide
damage Increased soil erosion Increased flood runoff increasing recharge of some floodplain aquifers Increased pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and disaster relief |
Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought | Likely (67-90%) |
Decreased crop yields Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage Decreased water resource quantity and quality Increased risk of forest fire |
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities | Likely (67-90%) over some areas |
Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious
disease epidemics and many other risks Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves |
Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño events in many different regions | Likely (67-90%) |
Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity
in drought- and flood-prone regions Decreased hydropower potential in drought-prone regions |
Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability | Likely (67-90%) |
Increase in flood and drought magnitude and damages in temperate and tropical Asia |
Increased intensity of mid-latitude storms | Uncertain (current models disagree) | Increased risks to human life and health Increased property and infrastructure losses Increased damage to coastal ecosystems |
Table Projected effects of global warming during the 21st Century (adapted from IPCC 2001b, table SPM-1).