Figure
— The modeled relationship between the PRTP
— a factor determining the discount rate — and the probability of
DAI in 2100. Increasing the PRTP (and therefore the discount rate) reduces
the present value of future climate damages and increases the probability of
DAI[X‰] as indicated, where X is the percentile from the DAI CDF derivable
from the *adaptation
of the IPCC Reasons for Concern figure*. The solid lines indicate
the percentage of outcomes above the stated threshold for DAI[X‰] for any
given level of PRTP or DAI percentile threshold X. At our median threshold DAI[50‰]
(thicker black line), the probability of DAI[50‰] rises from near zero
with a 0% PRTP to 30% with a 3% PRTP, as originally specified in the DICE model.
(Source:**
Mastrandrea and Schneider, 2004**.)